Proof in the Numbers: Tracking Change To Save Lives

When violence drops, hope rises. Safer streets change everything—residents feel more secure, businesses thrive, and the future of a city looks brighter. But how do we know if a strategy is truly working? The answer is in the data.

A few years ago, Pine Bluff was struggling with high rates of gun violence and regularly appeared on lists of America’s most dangerous cities. Determined to change that, leaders launched Group Violence Intervention (GVI), a focused approach that identifies the small number of individuals driving most of the violence and offers them a way out before it’s too late.

GVI has already proven to be successful in many cities around the nation, and it appears the same is happening in Pine Bluff. The results have been striking: Pine Bluff went more than 500 days without a single juvenile homicide. This success is the product of law enforcement, social services, and community members coming together with a shared goal—safer streets for everyone.

While frontline partners work in the community, a team of criminal justice experts is measuring the impact behind the scenes. Dr. Tusty ten Bensel, a criminologist at the University of Arkansas at Little Rock, has spent years studying violence and is leading the evaluation of Pine Bluff’s GVI efforts.

“We want to understand whether the program is actually being implemented the way that it was planned. Therefore, if we were to ever move it to a different county in Arkansas, we have plenty of evidence that this is actually working on the ground,” Dr. ten Bensel explains.

Her team analyzes police reports, incident details, and timelines of when gun violence occurs. The data shows a clear decrease in juvenile homicides—proof, she says, that the strategy is making a difference.

To get the full picture, the research includes more than official numbers. Surveys with youth involved in the justice system and their parents provide insight into the causes of violence and the barriers to change.

“We’re hoping to get a full picture not only of official data, but also survey data that’s asking the people that are involved,” says Dr. ten Bensel. “If we could attack those risk factors, we have a better chance of reducing gun violence.”

This combination of data and lived experience helps identify what resources and services will have the greatest impact.

GVI isn’t a single solution—it’s a wraparound approach. Law enforcement speaks directly with those at risk, outlining the consequences of violence. Social services and community members step in with support: housing, counseling, education, and employment opportunities.

“It’s not just one element. It’s all three elements going out to help these youth make better decisions,” Dr. ten Bensel notes.

Even in a smaller city, she says, the model can be just as effective as in larger urban areas—if it’s adapted to the local context.

Reducing gun violence has ripple effects: stronger community trust, lower economic costs, and healthier neighborhoods.

“Gun violence erodes partnerships in the community. There’s less trust in law enforcement. It has a family impact, a society impact, and an economic impact,” she says.

For smaller cities, each act of violence is deeply felt because of proximity and a greater likelihood that residents will know someone connected to the crime. A single shooting can ripple through the community, touching families, friends, and neighbors.

What stands out most to Dr. ten Bensel is the dedication of Pine Bluff’s local stakeholders.

“They spend hours figuring out how to help the youth and their families in the community,” she says. “I have been in awe of how passionate they are and how willing they are to help.”

Her philosophy is simple: If you can measure it, you can improve it. And the numbers from Pine Bluff show a community proving that targeted strategies, backed by data, can save lives.